A Lesson on Moving Average

Three days ago, there was a sudden jump in the number of serious/critical cases of COVID-19 across the globe. The reason was Brazil just started reporting this number and more than 6000 was added to the world tally in one day. Anomalies like this make it difficult to see the trend. To help in detecting a trend, a moving average is quite useful. This procedure smooths daily numbers such that we no longer see dramatic drops or increases. With this tool, a trend becomes much more visible. That trend is: We are very likely at an apex in both COVID-19 cases and deaths. Of course, this is not true for all countries. Italy, for instance, is already past the apex. Italy reached its apex for cases sometime in the end of March.

Above copied from the New York Times

Italy reached an apex in COVID-19 deaths in the first week of April.

Above copied from the New York Times

New York has also reached an apex on both cases and deaths. On cases, it was about a week ago.

Above copied from the New York Times

On deaths, we have a similar picture.

Above copied from the New York Times

Virginia is probably at the apex this week.

Above copied from the New York Times

Above copied from the New York Times

The entire globe seems to be at an apex.

Above copied from the New York Times
Above copied from the New York Times

And my old graph on serious/critical cases around the globe is showing the same trend.


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