COVID-19 on a World Map


We have seen the difference between linear and logarithmic plots. A logarithmic plot tells us whether something is growing exponentially. The steeper the logarithmic plot, the faster the growth rate is. With COVID-19, seeing where in the world most cases, most tests, and most deaths are, provides us with additional information. Eugene Chen  at Darkhorse Analytics, has provided us with an online tool that can take your data and can generate a map - in seconds. The site is MapinSeconds.com. With this tool, we can easily map COVID-19 data. The number of deaths is obviously a clear measurement of how severe a disease is. The following shows a map with the number of deaths per million people. The United States, countries in Europe, and Iran are hardest-hit.  



The number of deaths do correlate with the number of confirmed cases as shown in the following figure.


With number of cases, the rate of testing is important. As former US president Barack Obama says on a Facebook post. Testing is important especially as we near the time to modify our policy of social distancing, self-quarantine, and staying at home.




One way to see if we have achieved a robust system of testing is to compare the number of positive cases confirmed against the number of tests. A high percentage of positive cases suggests we are not yet randomly testing and are exclusively testing those we think may be infected with the virus. There are a few countries that have low positive results, but the countries that lie top in the number of cases are still below to be considered to have a robust system of testing.



This blog started following the number of serious or critical cases, as this may be a better proxy for the actual number of infections. The following is a map of the number of serious cases per million population.


In this map, except for Chile, which has 19 serious cases per million, all countries in the red are in the northern hemisphere. That is why I am still holding on the hope that this novel corona virus is sensitive to temperature.

The number of serious/critical cases plot is showing promise. It does look like we are now on a plateau. I hope it starts going don from here. Let us stay safe and healthy.


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