Infection and Testing Rates for COVID-19
|Above copied from Worldometer|
The number of daily tests (shown in blue) is clearly lagging the estimated number of infections. As a result, the number of confirmed infections (orange curve) is well below the estimated number of infections (dotted curve). The state of Virginia may easily have reached the peak in mid-April (roughly three weeks ago) but with tests still catching up, the confirmed number of cases per day will not appear to have reached any peak up to this day.
Of course, the dotted curve (estimated number of infections) is simply a guess with a huge band of uncertainty. What serves as a strong backup to this estimate is our understanding of exponential growth. Yes, we have seen during the past few weeks logarithmic plots. These plots do help us see if something is growing exponential or not. And here is the current picture for all the states in the country (Virginia and the entire US are highlighted):
Here, using the number of confirmed cases, the growth of COVID-19 cases is no longer exponential across the entire country, including the state of Virginia. And keep in mind, these are only the cases that have been confirmed. This is both under counted and significantly delayed.